Where is publishing headed? Has the AI apocalypse arrived? Is this the end of publishing as we know it? Which trends from 2024 are likely to continue, diminish, or accelerate in 2025? Recent cultural, political, economic, and technological shifts offer authors some clues as to where publishing trends in 2025 are headed.

The Bloom Came off the Rose for Traditional Publishing

Our most listened-to episode in 2024 was Publishing Industry Secrets Revealed at the Penguin Random House Trial.

It was so popular because the publishing industry holds its secrets tightly. Rarely do industry professionals share those secrets, and they almost never do it under oath in a court of law. But that is exactly what happened in the PRH trial. 

Highlights from the Episode:

• Publishers only spend 2% of their revenue on marketing. 
• 19% of books published by the Big Five houses sell a dozen copies or fewer. 
• Publishers rarely negotiate on royalty rates, leading many to speculate about market collusion. 

More dirty laundry was aired in the trial, and I encourage you to listen to the episode. Traditional publishing got a lot of mileage out of fancy New York City offices, and that mystique is starting to fade. 

Many authors now see traditional publishing as the new vanity publishing that attracts status seekers. Professional authors are opting more and more for indie publishing where they can earn a lot more money.

I predict that old-school traditional publishing will continue to decline in status. However, I think the publishing houses will be fine financially, due in part to the strength of their backlists, but also because of the second trend of a new publishing model.

A New Publishing Model is Emerging

Traditional publishers are having a harder time keeping their authors from leaving to go indie. Big-platform celebrities like Taylor Swift and Dave Ramsey opted for indie publishing over traditional publishing because the profit margins are so much better. Other traditional authors like EL James looked to go back to indie publishing after selling millions of books traditionally.

Successful indie authors don’t care to get help with:

• Covers
• Typesetting
• Editing
• Advertising
• Ebooks
• Large Advances 

They already do all of this on their own, and if they want a large advance, they can put their book on Kickstarter.

When I say “successful indies,” I’m talking about indie authors who are making six or seven figures per year. An indie author who is making $50,000 per month won’t find a $100,000 advance appealing, and historically, traditional publishers have not understood how to attract these kinds of authors.  

What successful indies do care about is:

• Creative control over the content of the book.
• Complete ownership of the ebook and ebook revenue. 
• Creative control over the presentation of the book (cover, branding, Amazon page, etc.)
• Sales representation to physical bookstore buyers.
• Distribution into physical bookstores.
• Real-time access to sales data. 

A new kind of publisher aims to help authors with those aspects of publishing, and the two main examples so far are Bloom Books and Authors Equity. Bloom Books works with successful indie authors by focusing on print book distribution. Successful indies make most of their money from ebook sales and are often willing to sell the rights to the print book if they can get good sales and distribution into physical bookstores. Not all readers have a Kindle or shop on Amazon, and indie authors want access to those kinds of readers.  

Bloom Books had 20 books on the New York Times bestseller list last year, which shows their model is working.

I predict more traditional publishers will launch imprints following the Bloom Books/Author’s Equity model in the coming years. Corporate America is very good at a technique called fast following, where they copy success. 

I do want to be clear that this new model is the opposite of hybrid publishing. Hybrid publishing tends to target unpublished authors, and it focuses on that list of things which indie authors can easily handle themselves. Hybrid publishers like Westbow and Exlibris prey on and author’s ignorance and plunder them for all they are willing to spend. I am not a fan of hybrid publishing. Please listen to my episode on hybrid publishing to protect yourself.

Rise in Romantasy

Some of the bestselling books of 2024 were romantic fantasy or “romantasy.” Sarah J. Maas and Rebecca Yarros topped the all-time bestseller list for 2024.  Romantasy skyrocketed in popularity in 2023 and 2024, and now everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. 

Even Brandon Sanderson has embraced romantasy by adding bedroom scenes, LGBT romances, and explicit language to his otherwise mainline fantasy Stormlight series. 

Will this trend of rising romantasy popularity continue? Circana BookScan indicates that sales for romantasy are starting to slow, and Jane Friedman thinks sales will plateau.   

I predict sales will stay strong in romantasy, but I doubt we will see continued growth. 

Rise in Premium Books

Premium hardback books had a great year in 2024. Whether it was BookVault opening up premium editions to indie authors, Kickstarter exclusives, or traditional publishers embracing premium editions, premium books had their best year in decades. 

As I prepped this episode, the #1 book on Amazon is the deluxe limited edition of Onyx Storm. It is at the confluence of two trends: romantasy and premium books. 

I predict that this trend will continue into 2025. Premium books are fashionable right now. A shelf full of premium books is what Gen Z would call a flex or what Baby Boomers would call a status symbol. 

I don’t think this trend will continue forever, though. Special edition books have gone in and out of popularity over the years. They were a popular alternative to pulp paperbacks in the 1920s before both declined in popularity. 

While I think the cycle will still go up in 2025, it won’t go up forever. Brandon Sanderson is the king of premium editions, and once his special edition sales start to slump, the rest of the industry will slowly follow. Premium books won’t crash but will slowly fade once readers fill their shelves. 

Readers Step to the Right

Amazon has kept an annual bestseller list since 1995. It’s an interesting list because, unlike the New York Times bestseller list, it isn’t curated by an editorial committee. It simply shares sales data. Coloring books, Bibles, and novels all compete to land on the list, and the list indicates that readers are moving to the right politically.

For example, in 2020, the #1 book was by Barack Obama, and the #2 book was the anti-Trump book Too Much is Never Enough. The left-wing extremist book White Fragility came in at #8. Michelle Obama came in at #14, and the anti-Trump book Rage came in at #17. There were no conservative political books in the top 20. The only conservative book in the top 50 was by Sean Hannity, and he barely made the list at #46.  

Now, compare that to 2024. The top political books were JD Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy at #4 and Melania at #17. There were no left-leaning political books in either the top 50 or top 100. Not a single book. 

This is a big societal shift. We went from the bestseller list being dominated by explicitly political left-leaning books in 2020 to not a single book making the list in 2024. I should also note that there were fewer political books overall despite both years being presidential election years. This is even more notable considering that the 2024 election was more entertaining with two attempted assassinations, a palace coup, and many notable people switching parties, like Dick Chaney becoming a Democrat and Tulsi Gabbard becoming a Republican. 

Despite all that, in 2024, readers preferred to read fiction by Colleen Hoover rather than nonfiction by the Obamas or Obama allies. The few political books they did read were by Trump allies or Trump family members. 

If you were following the Amazon bestseller lists rather than the polls, you would not have been surprised that Trump won the popular vote in 2024. 

Stepping to the right means previously politically active leftists have moved into the “Please don’t talk to me about politics” category, and some “Please don’t talk to me about politics” folks have stepped into right-leaning political activism.

My prediction is that while society is moving back to the right, the bigger shift is away from politics altogether. Network news ratings are collapsing as Americans pay less attention to politics. Amazon’s 2025 bestseller list, which is admittedly only a few days old at this point, doesn’t have a single political book in the top 100. As of this writing, there are eight Bible books in the top 50 and several books related to witchcraft and stoicism, which brings us to the next trend.

Rise in Religious Books Sales

Readers are shifting their reading from politics to religion. 

Bible sales rose by 40% in 2024. Religious books from all kinds of religions appear to be on the rise.  

For example, there is a revival going on in the Catholic and Orthodox churches right now. 

Young Gen Z men are increasing church attendance. Gen Z is the first generation in centuries where male church attendance surpasses female church attendance. However, young men are opting for traditional Catholic and Orthodox churches rather than the rock-concert style mega churches their Millennial and Gen X parents preferred. 

Young men have a growing longing for tradition and are flocking to the churches with deep traditional pedigrees. Latin Mass Catholic services are growing faster than services in English. 

This is part of a broader trend I’ve noticed away from modernism and toward traditionalism. In the 1970s, fundamentalists threw out tradition and embraced a new modern style of church using a liturgy consisting of a concert, announcements, and a TED-Talk-style sermon. The concert and TED Talk combo is not what church services looked like 300, 600, or 1,800 years ago. While modern in style, these churches were conservative in theology. Meanwhile, many protestant churches with a traditional style embraced liberal theology. 

In 2024, the fastest-growing churches were both traditional in style and conservative in theology. 

The biggest itinerant evangelist is Jordan Peterson. He travels and speaks to hundreds of thousands of young men who flock to his events in city after city. Many of those young men leave his events and start attending traditional churches as they strive to put their lives in order. And here is the crazy part: Jordan Peterson isn’t even a Christian! These are certainly strange times. 

I predict this trend will continue, but I suspect it could skip over protestant and evangelical churches. “Big Eva” is poorly positioned to navigate culture’s rightward shift and embraces modernity as a core value. Mainline protestant churches are rapidly moving to the left and are entirely out of sync with this new right-facing zeitgeist.

The Zeitgeist Is Shifting Into a Fourth Turning

Culture and society go through a shift every 20 years or so. Each of these cultural turnings can be tracked back hundreds of years, and America started shifting into the fourth turning in late 2023 and early 2024. Check out our episode on the fourth turning to learn more.

Girl bosses and anti-heroes are on the way out. Strong male heroes and moral clarity are on the way in. Our episode How to Write Novels Men Want to Read has become our most popular YouTube video of all time despite only being three months old. It received hundreds of comments on YouTube and hundreds more throughout social media.  

One point of clarification on that episode is that writing for men often attracts women as well. One of the most common comments was, “I’m a woman, and I also like this kind of fiction.” This is true. If you write for men, you typically get both men and women. If you write for women, you typically only attract female readers. 

For example, more women went to see Deadpool and Wolverine, a superhero film targeted at men, than went to see The Marvels, which was a superhero movie made for women. Similarly, a greater percentage of women voted for Joe Biden than voted for Kamala Harris. Biden’s campaign targeted both men and women equally while Kamala’s campaign focused primarily on women. 

Our episode on the fourth turning is now our fourth most popular YouTube video of all time, and I encourage you to listen to it to better understand how culture is shifting. 

I predict the trend into the fourth turning zeitgeist will accelerate. As a result, many authors who were doing well a couple years ago will start struggling to sell books. This drop in sales will feel inexplicable to them. The quality of their new books will be as high or higher than their previous books but the sales for new books will drop. 

Authors who fail to adapt to the zeitgeist will be replaced by younger, newer, and more culturally resonant authors. Look for a lot of generational turnover at the top of the rankings this year. A change in cultural seasons favors the new authors over the incumbents.   

Please listen to my episode about zeitgeist, especially if you don’t know what zeitgeist is.  

The Irresistible AI Infiltration

AI had an amazing year in 2024. All the charts are up and to the right. Quality is up, usage is up, and acceptance is up.

The attempts to stem the tide of AI in publishing have been anemic at best. When your best defense against something is an “honor system” where authors self-report AI usage, you are going to fail.

Most authors now use an AI-powered spell checker, and AI tools now are defaults on most new computers. Most authors have already started using AI tools, whether they realize it or not. The honor system doesn’t stop bad actors, and it doesn’t stop authors who are ignorant about what is powering their grammar checker. 

As someone who has spent decades pushing back against various societal trends, I can tell you that whining is not a winning strategy.  

Interestingly, the biggest pushback against AI has come from progressive literary types, and these folks have zero experience resisting technological progress. Many of them have a worldview that all progress is good, and they are ill equipped to halt the progress of AI. Their court cases are failing as are their technical tools for detecting AI. 

The good news is that AI will not destroy as many jobs as these people fear. In fact, if the history of technological progress is any guide, AI will net jobs to the economy. While it may not save your specific job, it will create a new job (or two) somewhere else in the economy.  

I predict the biggest limitation on AI will not come from whining, self-reporting, social shaming, regulations, court cases, or Congress. It will come from economics. Right now, the only company making any profit from AI is Nvidia. As companies higher up the tech stack (like Microsoft and Open AI) shift from growth at all costs to slower, sustainable, profitable growth, look for AI tools to become more expensive. As costs go up, growth will slow. 

As companies shift from growth-seeking to profit-seeking, the AI economic bubble will burst. I’m not saying the bubble will burst this year, but every major technology like this has led to over-investment and a burst bubble. It happened over and over with railroads. It happened with the dot-com crash, and I expect it will happen with AI at some point. For the record, I doubt the crash will come in 2025. I think AI has at least one more year of exuberant growth. Corporate America has invested a trillion dollars in AI, and they will seek a return on that investment.  

I also think we will start to see the very beginnings of serious on-device AI processing. I expect the Apple M5 chips to be able to run decent sized LLMs on devices without having to rely on cloud computing. I predict Apple will double down on their “Apple Intelligence” AI for marketing their 2025 lineup of computers.  

GPT Predictions

Speaking of AI, for our final predictions, I asked GPT 4 for New Year’s Predictions for book publishing in 2025. Below are each of GPT 4’s predictions, with my take on each one:

1. Surge in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Sales

Authors and publishers will double down on direct-to-consumer models. Platforms like Substack, author websites, and Patreon will become key hubs for exclusive content, early releases, and fan engagement. This will help authors capture more revenue and build closer connections with readers.

Thomas: I agree. This trend has been growing for years, and selling directly gets easier every year. 

2. AI and Personalized Content Will Expand

AI tools for writing, editing, and marketing will become mainstream. While AI-generated novels will still raise debates, AI will increasingly assist with world-building, outlining, and content personalization (such as “bonus scenes” tailored to individual readers).

Thomas: I agree that it will expand, but I don’t think it will be fully mainstream in 2025. 

3. Audiobook and Full-Cast Productions Will Boom

Audiobooks, especially full-cast productions, will continue growing. Readers love immersive experiences, and the trend toward “storytelling as cinema for your ears” will push indie authors to invest in high-quality narration and dramatization.

Thomas: I agree. I think we will see an expansion of AI narration on the low end and full-cast audio productions on the high end. The single audiobook narrator will get squeezed from both sides. 

4. Serialized Fiction Will Dominate Digital Spaces

Platforms like Kindle Vella, Webtoon, and Radish will see an uptick in both indie and traditional publishers experimenting with serialized fiction. This format’s accessibility, especially on mobile, is attracting younger readers who consume stories in bite-sized formats.

Thomas: Kindle Vella doesn’t exist anymore, but I do agree that we will see overall growth, especially on RoyalRoad.com. I have an episode on this in the works. 

5. Shorter Novels Will Gain Popularity

With busy schedules and shorter attention spans, many readers prefer fast-paced, digestible reads. The resurgence of the novella format and shorter series installments (e.g., 200-250 pages) will continue to rise, particularly in genres like fantasy, romance, and sci-fi.

Thomas: I disagree. I also disagree that attention spans are shrinking. People binge-watch Netflix and TikTok for far more hours than they had ever binged on TV in the 1990s. The #1 book on the Amazon charts last week was 1,300 pages long, and the second bestselling book was 643 pages long.  

6. Nostalgia and 90s-2000s IP Revivals

There will be a wave of “nostalgia publishing,” with new adaptations, sequels, and spin-offs of beloved 90s-2000s IP. Expect expanded universes for fantasy and sci-fi sagas, as well as new editions and anniversary releases.

Thomas: I disagree with this in publishing but wouldn’t be surprised to see it in film and TV.  

7. Social Media Platform Shifts for Book Promotion

TikTok’s influence on BookTok remains strong, but new players (like YouTube Shorts or unexpected competitors) may steal attention. More authors will experiment with long-form video content—think “behind-the-scenes” deep dives on their creative process.

Thomas: If TikTok survives the court challenge, it will continue to have influence. Otherwise, that influence will rapidly erode. I have no idea how the court will rule.  

8. Rise of “Cozy” Fantasy and Comfort Reads

The popularity of “cozy fantasy” (like Legends & Lattes) will grow as readers seek escapist, heartwarming stories in uncertain times. This will spill into sci-fi as well, where hopeful, uplifting futures will counterbalance dystopian tropes.

Thomas: I agree. To learn why, listen to my zeitgeist episode.  

9. Genre Crossovers and Experimental Hybrids

Books that blend genres (e.g., fantasy-mystery-romance or horror-sci-fi) will increase as readers crave fresh storytelling. Blurred lines between “literary” and “commercial” will create more crossover hits, with high-concept fantasy series finding spots on mainstream bestseller lists.

Thomas: I disagree. I don’t think we will see another hybrid genre take off like we did last year with romantasy. 

10. AI in Publishing Operations

Publishers will use AI for market analysis, cover design, and rights negotiations. While this will increase efficiency, it may lead to more scrutiny from unions and creatives about preserving “human” artistry in books.

Thomas: I agree, although I suspect a lot of this is quietly happening already.

11. Growing Focus on IP Adaptability

Publishers will increasingly evaluate a manuscript’s adaptability potential (for TV, film, and gaming) as a core selling point. Expect more multi-platform deals as streaming services hunt for book franchises with built-in audiences.

Thomas: I don’t think this is a big change. Publishers have long looked at IP adaptability and that will continue. If anything, this will decline as streaming services spend less money making new shows. 

12. Crowdfunding and Grassroots Marketing

Crowdfunding for special editions, pre-order campaigns, and unique collector’s items will rise. Authors with dedicated fanbases will lean into platforms like Kickstarter to fund special projects and limited-run books, turning fans into investors.

Thomas: I agree.

13. Community-Driven Book Launches

Book launches will evolve into multi-day virtual and in-person events that blend panels, Q&As, and interactive experiences. With your debut novel coming soon, your launch party could align perfectly with this trend if you add reader polls, exclusive swag, and interactive activities!

Thomas: This prediction is meaningless AI word salad. It’s all the buzzwords and no substance. 

Conclusion

Overall, I’m optimistic about the future. I don’t think we will see any major changes this year other than many of the trends from last year continuing. The best thing you can do to set yourself up for success is to listen to my episode about zeitgeist, especially if you don’t know what the word zeitgeist means.  

Featured Patrons

New December Patrons:

• Laurie Prince
• Corby Pons
• Daeus
• Mitch Todd
• Lyneta Smith
• James
• Suzanne Delzio
• Jim
• Tiffiny Felix
• Kevin
• Mike Dowling
• Lee Ross

Related Episodes

• AI Tools for Authors
• AI for Authors in 2024 – The Good, Bad, and Ugly
• How to Write Stories Readers Will Love by Knowing the Zeitgeist 
• How to Write Novels Men Want to Read